With memories still fresh from the first Cold War, leaders in Africa, Asia, and across the Global South have repeatedly said they do not want any part of a second Great Power rivalry. But as tensions between the U.S. and China steadily deteriorate, the pressure on these smaller, non-aligned countries is going to surge.
I think arguably a most dangerous flashpoint is South China Sea. Unlike many countries in ASEAN and Global South that have been trying to carefully balance and strive for non-alignment, the Philippines has been locked in intensifying maritime dispute with China over South China Sea/West Philippines Sea claims -- this dispute carries risks of spilling over and escalating.
Unlike Taiwan Strait, where everyone arguably knows the red lines and there are 23 million people concerned, the South China Sea is arguably an uncompromisable issue for all sides in conflict but has very little population or guardrails -- so likelihood of more risk taking, miscommunication, and misunderstanding. An accident leading to fast escalation in the South China Sea / West Philippine Sea is arguably possible. The bottom line: oil and gas...humans have fought for energy essentials since dawn of civilization. Philippines is about to run out of affordable natural gas by 2027; China + Vietnam desperately need access to resources as well. Well, the South China Sea is rich in oil and gas.
Any worst-case scenario escalation in the South China Sea could potentially be devastating for the world. In this Indo-Pacific region: over 60% of the world population, over 60% of global trade and supply chains, and over 60% of aggregate global military arsenals from all sides. Not a pretty picture that allows one to sleep easily at night.
I think arguably a most dangerous flashpoint is South China Sea. Unlike many countries in ASEAN and Global South that have been trying to carefully balance and strive for non-alignment, the Philippines has been locked in intensifying maritime dispute with China over South China Sea/West Philippines Sea claims -- this dispute carries risks of spilling over and escalating.
Unlike Taiwan Strait, where everyone arguably knows the red lines and there are 23 million people concerned, the South China Sea is arguably an uncompromisable issue for all sides in conflict but has very little population or guardrails -- so likelihood of more risk taking, miscommunication, and misunderstanding. An accident leading to fast escalation in the South China Sea / West Philippine Sea is arguably possible. The bottom line: oil and gas...humans have fought for energy essentials since dawn of civilization. Philippines is about to run out of affordable natural gas by 2027; China + Vietnam desperately need access to resources as well. Well, the South China Sea is rich in oil and gas.
Any worst-case scenario escalation in the South China Sea could potentially be devastating for the world. In this Indo-Pacific region: over 60% of the world population, over 60% of global trade and supply chains, and over 60% of aggregate global military arsenals from all sides. Not a pretty picture that allows one to sleep easily at night.